A project of Aristotle, a data company, and the Victoria University of Wellington. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. To engage with some new technologies, you should try a project like sspaeti's 20 minute data engineering project. Free Tools. 89 for Republicans to win. Feb/11/2023. ’. PredictIt -. by Feb. 2024 Republican Party Presidential Nominee. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. org. High fees along with restrictions blocking automatic. BetMoose. Predictit - Arizona Senate Race. 2. # 108,710 6,054. Election odds currently have Joe Biden at +138. The turned to PredictIt because it allowed them to place wagers that were a touch more niche than standard bookmakers offered, but now the site is shutting down and will be missed by those s. The CFTC feels that the ruling in United States v. S. The Biggest Horse Race, IV Trump Indicted EditionPredictIt takes a certain percentage of any gains when contracts are sold or settled & takes a percentage of money withdrawn from the site & that is their source of revenues. If the predicted outcome does not take place, the no shares are. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitorsNot only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. That's exactly correct. $25,654. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Simple example of using predictit as a python library and function arguments. PredictIt is a stock market-style prediction platform that allows users to “buy” and “sell” shares in events, with the value of their shares determined by the likelihood of the event occurring. Lemmy. Canada: Live stream, start time, aggregate score for Nations League quarterfinal second leg;PredictItSo there's an argument that I've seen a lot over the past few years, particularly in LW-adjacent circles, that goes something like this: This post is dedicated to disagreeing with that argument, not from an anti-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position, but from a pro-Efficient-Market Hypothesis position. Compare your predictions with other traders and join the market for the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election. In addition to the claims about the university’s and Aristotle’s relationship, the CFTC also claims that 17 markets offered on PredictIt violated the no-action letter’s terms. PredictIt’s non-profit status has allowed it to operate legally by obtaining a no-action letter from the CFTC, the U. ) are legal. BetMGM Ontario Election Odds. 4: Professional election forecasters. Wide menu of political events covered. Join our Discord for discussion and help: project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. Menu. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Betfair: +750 for Democrats, -2500 for Republicans. CryptoFind out everything you need to know about PredictIt before you play. 00 for the winner, which can be traded at any price until their final value is met. Mehmet Oz This is a highly contentious race for a seat being vacated by Republican Pat Toomey that, like in Georgia, sees a Donald Trump-endorsed celebrity candidate. Crypto Briefing spoke with Will Jennings, head of public engagement for PredictIt, to learn more. DeSantis’ numbers have fallen from a peak of $0. C. Regarding the variety in markets offered, Kalshi definitely stands out for offering a wider range of markets for users to participate in. withdrew its permission in August 2022, and ordered the site to shut down, saying it had. A decision on the future of Victoria University’s political betting site PredictIt remains in the balance as the Fifth Circuit court agrees to allow it to keep trading for a bit longer. To continue operations until Feb. wider elections, the stock market, the real estate market, etc. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. PredictIt remains highly regulated and constrained by the terms of its agreement with the CFTC: Users can’t trade more than $850 on an individual bet, and there can be no more than 5,000 traders. org - Top 45 predictit. November. Trade on the world's most highly-debated topics like crypto, politics, sports, current events,. The first two sites offer futures contracts that expire at $1. The political betting site PredictIt places his odds of being elected president in 2024, expressed as a share price, at 23 cents, slightly below Trump’s and well below Biden’s, but far above. Political bettors on the PredictIt exchange were enraged when they went to buy or sell shares of the 2020 outcome and found the site inaccessible. PredictIt is an online Other site. It’s a way to monetize things like 2022 midterm predictions. Predictable Insights provides a unique, crowdsourced perspective at the intersection of politics and prediction markets. 3 million shares traded on Wednesday morning, according to PredictIt. PredictIt is a New Zealand -based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. com is the website with the highest similarity score to predictit. Free Bet Offers : Predictions for 100+ Leagues : Latest Results by League and Team : Up to Date League Tables : Statistics for 3000+ teams. 44-2. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more. PredictIt has an $850 limit on any one market, for any one candidate or other potential outcome. PredictItLibrary/framework for making predictions. The site is an excellent alternative or complement to online political betting markets. We use technologies like cookies to store and/or access device information. Democrats win. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam shared insights on the future of regulated prediction markets like Kalshi during a recent panel discussion. PredictIt and Betfair as of Tuesday morning at 11 a. S. PredictItFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis is now the frontrunner on PredictIt for both the Republican nomination and to win the presidency in 2024. The models for PredictIt and PolyMarket differ significantly from overseas betting on politics. 3%: $1,329,129. PredictItPredictIt is a prediction market that allows you to trade on the outcomes of political and social events. Below is a list of prediction market platforms and implementations that may be useful for futures studies. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). There's a large community of open source developers that would gladly develop small modules around the Predict It data. 3%: $882,928. And the best part? The community is made up of hilarious, quirky individuals just like us! So, in my shilling and humble opinion, Polkamarkets trumps Kalshi any day 😜 Reply reply itztomlandlord • Kalshi and PredictIt are both great platforms for participating in prediction. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic. PredictIt and Windy are two websites that allow users to predict the outcome of various events. On the 2022 campaign trail he once joked in. So the site will only charge us $0. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. Senate election in Pennsylvania in 2022. org, you can try to predict political events and win money while doing so. ; Users on the site place "yes" or "no" bets on popular political predictions, like President. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, reportedly arranged a $130,000 payment to silence Daniels about an alleged affair with Trump. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 94% of traffic. Cicada: Mar 2019 #1: You made a claim , followed by " I don't know if it's true" Talking Tom: Mar 2019 #3: Betting sites have proven validity. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. org for free in terms of their online performance: traffic sources, organic keywords, search rankings, authority, and much more. is on the verge of being shut down—even though studies suggest that such markets may predict elections better than polls do. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets in the PredictIt exchange to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. PredictIt has made the following announcement in response to the withdrawal: The security of trader funds will not be affected by this action. org Competitors. Consequential issues,. ValuePredictItpredictit. 8 million shares were traded on PredictIt for the speaker contest, jumping to 12. Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. Reply [-] aphyer 3y 4. Current as of Map Timestamp. ). It was the leading platform for individuals to bet on the. trustworthiness, child safety measures, traffic rank, similar websites, server location, WHOIS data, and more. The site is supported by Aristotle International, Inc. Of course, spoofing requires spending money to buy shares, with no guarantee of profit, but this can be a small price to pay for this supposed. PredictIt, a market that built its name by letting Americans bet on who will be elected to Congress or the next president, has lost its legal authority to. Drill down into the main traffic drivers in each channel below. electoral-vote. PredictIt This isn’t the first time the CFTC has come down on markets like PredictIt. 202-543-8345. agency in charge of regulating online betting. Fortunately, they made an exception for PredictIt. Embed Package Health Score Badge. Among forecasters, Nate Silver has the best track record. 3-66. org in terms of keyword traffic, audience targeting, and. Please feel free suggest more sites in the comments section and they will be added to the list. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites. A maximum of $850 in betting per person per contract ( not per market) A substantial house cut of 10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. We examine individual-level trading data from several markets to determine what strategies correlate with financial success. You can buy and sell shares of real-world events and earn money if your predictions are correct. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. And indeed, FiveThirtyEight. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. by Feb. Per PredictIt’s no-action letter, PredictIt users cannot make more than $850 in any position. Recommendation for a good international event betting site like predictit. 99 per share. Do not assume that Internet gaming sites are in compliance with the rules and regulations of every jurisdiction from which they accept players. Welcome to PredictZ! PredictZ provides free football tips and predictions, free analysis, football form and statistics, the latest results and league tables and much more. 1: People who bet. This article is for subscribers only. electoral-vote. Although there are many config variables, defaults should be enough. package health package health 47/100 47/100. In the years following the 2014 No-Action letter, Victoria University, in conjunction with Aristotle International, would launch PredictIt, a site that became one of the most followed indicators of future political leanings in the United States, alongside sites like 538 and RealClearPolitics, which have made a name for themselves projection. No. Automatically choose best models (ARIMA, regressions, MLP, LSTM. On Jan 18, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans laid out a timeline for the case. Those heavily favored to be Trump states have (less than 15% change of Biden win on FiveThirtyEight) are actually less favored to go for Trump on PredictIt. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minuteIn bet-capped places like predictit, this can make equilibrium that are different from optimal, because there are non-monetary incentives at work. 3: Polls. 6 billion, which is similar to previous years. PredictIt is not a gambling site like overseas sports betting parlors Paddy Power and Betfair, which offer some betting on elections. If I don't get my favorable outcome, at least I'll make some money. Anything I write here is my opinion and not that of my employer. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome. The PredictIt website offers armchair political pundits a way to make some pocket change by placing small wagers on election outcomes and the actions of politicians. S. AD Users are able to bet on events, such as 2024 nominations for president and whether marijuana becomes federally rescheduled this year, using bank deposits or a credit card, but PredictIt also accepts cryptocurrency. While markets like PredictIt meet the demand of those who want to speculate on political outcomes, they also accommodate businesses that seek to hedge against adverse consequences from such outcomes. godaddy. TOP LINE Politics is full of bold, outlandish predictions. In that case, our account is credited with the lowest such profit. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Rank in the United States. Likewise, if other prediction markets like Augur or Predictious take off, I will include those. At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting today the Federal Reserve said that it was keeping short-term. The agency rejected a 2012 proposal by the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADE) on the basis that the proposed. Predictit 's alternatives and competitors. “This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in the insights they provide. PredictIt 65. Currently, PredictIt is fighting in court after the CFTC rescinded permission to operate several of its betting lines. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As far as reliability goes, consider that PM are a very new thing, so I recommend you use precaution with all of them for the time being. 27. RealClearPolitics - Betting Odds - 2024 Republican Presidential NominationThe letter demanded the site shut down its marketplace and stop offering contracts to customers by the end of February 15. In light of this decision, we are halting the. com Analytics and market share drilldown here. org. after being granted a No-Action Letter by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Your global no limit betting exchange. PredictIt currently charges a 10% fee on profits made by buying and selling shares to cover the site's operating costs, and there is an $850 limit on how much of any one contract a person can hold. NEW. Yes! Presidential prediction markets – and all prediction markets across most industries (i. The really confident ones can put their money where their mouths are — literally — on political market sites like PredictIt. S. Like Miller, many of the top speculators on PredictIt are political junkies who win money with a mix of savvy and speed. 9. PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind. frameor tibble, as returned by all_markets() or single_market. com (202) 903-4221 The agency said the university had agreed PredictIt would be operated by itself or its professors, but Aristotle Inc. PredictItPredictIt is a site where Americans can wager on the outcomes of political events, with an exemption from the US Government as the data is used for academic research. Keep your project healthy. Wide menu of political events covered. 9, 2022, in US Federal. Analyze websites like predictit. Forecasting is a public good, providing information to the public. PredictIt is currently offering shares in Biden being the nominee for 68 cents, meaning a trader who bought a share would earn 32 cents if he is the Democratic candidate in 2024, which is likely. Accepts American customers. It captured GOP strength in key states that almost all mainstream pollsters. Coin Prices. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic. Donald Trump is +150, and Michelle Obama is +1600. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. PredictIt, several of its traders and academic users, and technology provider Aristotle International have filed a lawsuit seeking to block the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 2% chance of flipping the Senate on Oddschecker. g. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. Founder & CEO John Aristotle Phillips. As of January 3, 11. . A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. randn(100, 2), predicted_column=1, predicts=3) There are only two positional arguments data and predicted_column (because, there is more than a. org competitors and alternatives. Let us be generous and assume that PredictIt settles bets immediately thereafter (though their page for the bet states 'PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time' and 'PredictIt’s decisions and. [laughter] Alright, so PredictIt is what’s called a prediction market. 35 shortly after his launch to $0. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. The plaintiffs in the PredictIt case have obtained an injunction to keep the site up and running temporarily. Products. PolyMarket: . Profit. My position is: I've been meaning to. com. org top alternatives and find potential or emerging competitors. Donald Trump 34¢. Betting Prediction Markets Practical. T. PredictItsites for prediction,By 2022, it had 80,000 active s, which was a combination of both casual bettors and those that took politics very seriously. Register Now. BetMoose is a peer-to-peer betting website that allows users to bet on anything and accept or create bets with. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. No. Jennings revealed that the election event has. predict(data=np. Whether it is U. The C. Santos didn’t just like watching the demigods who inhabited that world; he had dreams of that kind of fame for himself. It sounds like fun, but is it all sunshine and roses? We have the answers in our. This does not increase if you do arbitrage. Find out why - Click here to Analyze all competitors Not only is it largely unenforceable, but, particularly on sites like PredictIt that have an academic purpose, one of the very reasons prediction markets are of interest to researchers is because their prices reflect not only public information but also “scattered private information held by traders. The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through. S. PredictIt also offers political analysis and insights from its experts and community. provider of data processing and verification services. New research shows that the best way to improve overall predictive accuracy is by aggregating the forecasts from the best forecasters in a group. Predictit, the most often referenced one, has a fee structure that makes it horribly inefficient: they take 10% of all winnings on a given bet and 5% of all withdrawals from the site. I artificially draw the line between early web and cloud simply because the cloud enabled so many other web apps to become more. letter. January 1, 2021. " In November 2019, the site had 200,000 subscribers and 3,000 active traders each day. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. To put it simply, PredictIt allows customers to trade “yes” and “no” shares on the outcomes of future political events at prices ranging from $0. Few events listed other than politics. We need more platforms like PredictIt to operate markets and promote discussion on events of public interest, not fewer. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. You face numerous challenges and risks—some you. Although numerous bookmakers. Because of the market's structure, smart money cannot (given the first two reasons) or will not (given the third reason) fix all. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. PredictItHave you found a working PredictIt coupon that you'd like to share? Submit it here to help millions of other shoppers save at the checkout. Political betting site fights regulators. The betting odds website "PredictIt" is a joke (Original post) Talking Tom: Mar 2019: OP: Betting markets have proven accuracy. High fees on profits and withdrawals. [1] On the ethics of insider trading. November 7 11:50 a. Follow the latest trends, insights and analysis from PredictIt's community of traders and experts. Anecdotically, it often has free energy, that is, places where one can earn money by having better probabilities, and where this is not too hard. 15, 2023 due to the government rescinding a No-Action Letter, which formed the basis for it to operate legally. Yves here. November 14, 2022. Global Traffic Rank. The site has become a mainstay in virtually all. Bitcoin. PredictIt is a relatively new site, and, frankly, it looks at best eerily similar to online gambling and at worst like outright fraud, yet another ‘get rich quick scheme. To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. Advertisement Harry Crane is a professor of statistics at Rutgers. According to Nate Silver’s site, this election is still close to a tossup, whereas the wagering on PredictIt suggests it’s all but decided. Industry. This makes the site a valuable resource. Though PredictIt comes across as quiz show meets Caesars Palace sportsbook, the five-year-old site doesn’t have bookies and oddsmakers like the sports gambling parlors that populate Las Vegas or. That’s an essential reprieve with the original Feb 15 shutdown deadline now less than three weeks away. electoral-vote. to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or…. 5. 5 mBTC withdrawal fee) API: A project of Victoria University of Wellington, PredictIt has been established to facilitate research into the way markets forecast events. What that meant, essentially, is the CFTC allowed. 205 Pennsylvania Avenue SE. However, PredictIt is expected to liquidate its event contracts by February 15, 2023. A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. In early 2015, PredictIt saw about 2 million total shares traded. This is why pure arbitrage that frees up capital can continue. Even while it lasts, PredictIt is not perfect; an $850-per-contract betting limit imposed by regulation means that long-shots are systematically overvalued on PredictIt. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PolyMarket is an “information markets platform” that allows traders to use the Polygon blockchain to make bets on the outcome of events. Other Things. Now if we buy No shares on every candidate, we get into a situation (at least currently) where we profit no matter who wins. Check your requirements. 2. at the University of Iowa. It’s like a stock market where you buy and sell $1 winner- take- all shares, where two people…Headquarters Location. Two of the sites that Election Betting Odds pulls from — Betfair and Smarkets — showed DeSantis holding a substantial lead over Trump, with the Florida governor coming in at 27 percent to 27. See how Predictit compares to similar products. PredictItPredictIt is a platform where you can make predictions on political events and trade shares based on their outcomes. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. There are other sites that operate like PredictIt. 6. That leaves the markets vulnerable to small shocks that can result in small profits. Here is a look at the odds to win US President in 2024. Menu Discover the full list of predictit. PredictIt is somewhat larger and more active, with something like $1 million in its individual market, but that is still not much money in the grand scheme of things. org in July 2023 are ranked by their affinity to predictit. PredictIt is closing due to CFTC changing its mind Politics ( predictit. S. report. PredictItIn the 2014 PredictIt approval letter, 3 the CFTC analyzed the applicant’s facts and circumstances and based approval on conditions such as capping investment and trading volumes, being operated. S. 2023 of the popular event prediction market, PredictIt. View election betting odds for those candidates and more below. Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to justify the forced wind down in. org Brags and Beats. S. Unlike those betting sites, PredictIt operates in a similar. Posted onAugust 5, 2022 by Yves Smith. The site is supported by Aristotle International, Inc. Business Services · District of Columbia, United States · <25 Employees. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. It has been described as one of two legal ways to bet on elections in the United States. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. org after the election, but I was unable to join since I don't live in. other political & government brands and stores. The CFTC has also recommended rejecting the request by Kalshi. PredictIt has long been cited as one of the more accurate predictors of. Automatically choose best models (ARIMA,. That legal matter involves a No Action letter that the CFTC issued then withdrew in. 65 at PredictIt. 1. On the 2022 campaign trail he once joked in a previously unreported tape. Lawyers for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted a new document to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on June 28, drawing the court’s attention to a recent Supreme Court decision. . Preprocess data and chose optimal parameters of prediction. Frontpage. The Washington Post reported that PredictIt spokesman Will Jennings said the site was accurate 70 to 80 percent of the time, although it was difficult to make a “blanket accuracy assessment, given the variety of markets. 5M shares traded. On the eve of the 2022 U. Website. Some platforms like Metaculus and Hypermind use volunteers with prizes, others, like PredictIt and Smarkets are formal betting markets. . org - Top 45 predictit. Books we like: "Give Me A Break" By John Stossel "Signal and the Noise" By Nate Silver "The Scout Mindset" By Julia Galef "Radical" By Maajid Nawaz "In Order To Live" By Yeonmi Park: About these odds and FAQ | By Maxim Lott and John Stossel | Odds update every minutePredictItFor its part, PredictIt “maintains that all open markets are within the terms of the . They’re called betting exchanges. Discover the full list of predictit. If the predicted outcome does not take place, the no shares are. PredictIt (prediction market, $850 limit per contract, commission 10% of net winnings per market + 5% of total withdrawal amount) Crypto (unregulated, act accordingly): FTX (betting exchange, 0. It’s important to keep in mind that PredictIt acts within a grey area; similar to offshore sportsbooks. Ensure all the packages you're using are healthy and well-maintained. PredictIt To be most effective on political betting sites like PredictIt, you need to be able to filter out the noise and seek out information. PredictIt, a popular political. Twitter. org Competitors. It’s Friday and these are the insights we’ve been keeping an eye on this week. In Trump's first year in office, PredictIt's population of traders has grown to 80,000 from 50,000 as the White House deals political junkies a litany of new policy, personnel and, yes, Twitter. CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 28: Traders in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index options pit at the. It’s a web site the place you could possibly place bets and win cash on political outcomes. According to Aristotle and PredictIt co-founder and CEO, John Phillips, in response to the decision: "This is a sweeping victory for prediction markets like PredictIt and those who find value in. The Vegas bookmakers do not set lines to equalize betting on both side of a wager & in many cases it isn’t possible to do so, just look at the Mattress Mack World. You can explore the latest trends, analysis, and commentary on various topics, such as Trump's influence, the 2020 election, and more. Menu. PredictItPredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. 01 to $0. However, it was the only serious site that received a regulatory waiver. It’s not like PredictIt is happy about this. Political betting site fights regulators. The site is now in danger of being shut down by government regulators. University officials said exchanges like PredictIt are used by research and higher education institutes to glean essential data on a variety of topics. DETROW: John Aristotle Phillips is PredictIt's CEO. You can buy and sell shares of candidates and parties, and earn money if your predictions are correct. I've never done sports betting before, but want to make a bet on one of the PredictIt politics elections (I view this as a way of hedging. ” PredictIt lets everyone see what everyday Americans, rather than just “experts,” think about future political events, without filtering those opinions through potentially biased pollsters. . "The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into hard probabilities. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New. PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University. PredictIt is a betting exchange, like a stock market. Augur is a blockchain-based platform owned by its users. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Sites similar to predictit. C. Participants buy shares in an outcome, like who will win a Senate race, for between 1 and 99 cents. PredictItHeadquarters Location. # 1. The site is now selling shares — taking bets on future political events — for 10. What makes Lemmy one of the best alternatives is its versatility. PredictIt is a prediction platform restricted to US citizens or those who bother using a VPN. PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country. PredictIt Insight is a platform that offers data-driven insights on politics and prediction markets.